World Chess Championship 2021 Preview
Why hello there, welcome to my blog! In this post, I will be previewing the upcoming World Chess Championship match between the challenger GM Ian Nepomniachtchi and the defending champion GM Magnus Carlsen. We've been waiting for what seems like years for this match to finally happen, and on November 26th the first game will begin. It's a really big deal in the chess world, both on and off the board. What happens on the board will decide who the next world chess champion will be. What happens off the board, however, could impact chess not just for Magnus and Nepo, but all chess enthusiasts out there. As I preview the match, I will explain how this match can keep the worldwide "chess boom" going, remind you how both players got here, give you the case for both players to emerge victorious from this match, and I will end with my predictions for the match. Keep in mind I'm no professional, so this probably won't be like the sort of match preview you'd expect chess.com to give you, but I had fun making this and it's all my own opinion. That alone makes it unique, for better or for worse. I hope you enjoy it!
THE CHESS BOOM
If you are reading this, you are probably well aware of the chess boom that has swept through the world, sparking newfound interest in our wonderful game of 32 pieces and 64 squares everywhere. The best moments of the chess boom took place in 2020, as the coronapocalypse forced everyone to stay cooped up at home. This led to chess content on Twitch and YouTube exploding, with content creators like Hikaru, GothamChess, and Agadmator, for example, seeing their number of viewers increase dramatically. Chess.com brilliantly capitalized on this and created PogChamps, exposing chess to even more people online. And then, when you thought things couldn't get any better, The Queen's Gambit comes along on Netflix and exposes chess to a ridiculous amount of people. Since then, Chess.com and the top chess content creators continue to do their thing, but there hasn't been another huge surge of interest in chess quite like the one we saw come from The Queen's Gambit a year ago. But I think we could see that happen during the world championship, and GM Maurice Ashley is a big reason why.
As you may or may not know, the World Chess Championship will be covered on NBC Sports this year. NBC Sports! That's a big deal. GM Maurice Ashley will be commentating, so the coverage on the match should be entertaining. He is very good at explaining what is happening on the board, and I think that will help him connect with anyone who just happens to tune in to NBC Sports and sees Chess on TV. If done correctly, interest in chess will go up dramatically again. Chess.com will also offer coverage of the match, you can read about that here. With GM Ashley commentating on NBC, Chess.com covering the match, and probably most of the top chess content creators covering the match as well, the seeds have been planted for another huge surge of interest in chess.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
If you already know how they got to the world championship, feel free to skip over this part. If you don't know, well, I guess you'll learn something today! We'll start with the man who dares challenge Magnus for his crown.
Nepo earned his spot in this match by winning the 2020-2021 FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament. This was arguably the toughest Candidates tournament we've seen in quite some time, given the circumstances of the event, and given the strength of the participating players. For him to have emerged victorious was simply outstanding, and it showed a level of consistency that he will probably need if he wants to defeat Magnus. However, there is more to Nepo's journey to the world championship. You see, one does not simply compete in the Candidates tournament without qualifying. To qualify for the Candidates tournament, Nepo first had to take care of business in the Jerusalem FIDE Grand Prix. He was successful in Jerusalem. Taking 2nd place in the event was enough to secure 1st place in the overall standing of the FIDE Grand Prix, which secured him a spot in the Candidates tournament.
Magnus secured his spot by winning the previous world championship. The winner of the world championship is the world champion until they are dethroned. So, Magnus will be in every world championship match until someone defeats him. Considering Magnus only had to win one event, albeit the biggest and most important event there is in chess, Nepo's route to this match is arguably tougher to go through. Yes, Magnus did have to win a world championship, and not just anyone can do that. But overall, Nepo had to win two events and defeat a wide variety of opponents to get to this specific world championship, compared to Magnus only having to win 1 event against 1 opponent. Generally, the challenger has it tougher, that's how it is. Had Magnus lost the 2018 world championship match to Fabiano Caruana, he would have had to compete in the Candidates tournament to have a chance to get his title back. But of course, Magnus is the Tom Brady of chess. He just doesn't lose when it matters most.
WHY NEPO COULD WIN
I have said for years now that if anyone was going to dethrone Magnus, it would be Nepo. I stand by that statement. Even if he goes on to lose, I believe he has better chances to win a 14-game match against Magnus than anyone in the world, and that includes Caruana, who nearly did beat Magnus. I firmly believe if anyone is gonna dethrone Magnus anytime soon, it's gonna be Ian Nepomniachtchi, and that's because of his playing style. Nepo likes to attack and can be aggressive. While we all know Magnus is, well, Magnus, I do believe Nepo can pull the upset with his aggressive play and brilliant attacking style. Will Magnus be prepared to combat that? Yes, without a doubt. Will Nepo be prepared for whatever Magnus prepares? I suppose that's the question, and we will find out in a few weeks.
I firmly believe if anyone is gonna dethrone Magnus anytime soon, it's gonna be Ian Nepomniachtchi, and that's because of his playing style.
—Lightning, 2021
It's worth mentioning that Nepo currently has a winning record against Magnus. Granted, 2 of his wins against Carlsen were when they were both fairly young. Even still, a win against Magnus is a win, and Nepo has multiple of them. It goes to show Nepo is definitely capable of beating Magnus, even if those wins were long ago. He has beaten him before, so he can beat him again... right? The previous 2 world championship matches were very, very close. In those said matches, Magnus won on tiebreaks and, while we must acknowledge a part of that is just him being one of the greatest players of all time, I do wonder what would have happened had his opponents been somewhat more aggressive. To me, if Nepo gets the match to tiebreaks, he will have a great chance to win, and he will have his aggressive, attacking play to thank for it.
WHY MAGNUS COULD WIN
I mean, this one is fairly simple. He's Magnus. That's all I even need to say, honestly. But of course, to not say more would be lazy, and even though I am an exceptionally lazy person, I shall indeed say more. Magnus Carlsen has been the world champion since 2013 when he defeated Viswanathan Anand. Magnus has defended his title successfully in 2014, 2016, and 2018, against Anand, Sergey Karjakin, and Caruana, respectively. Aside from winning world championships, Magnus still manages to dominate in most of the other tournaments he competes in, rarely losing games in classical chess. Many believe Carlsen is the greatest player of all time, and for good reason. For what it's worth, I myself am not ready to say he is the greatest of all time, I would still give that honor to Garry Kasparov, but that's just my opinion. That changes if Magnus defends his title once again. If he defeats Nepo, then I think he is the greatest to ever play. Even if he doesn't win, I do believe he will soon be the undisputable greatest player of all time as he continues to achieve great success pretty much everywhere he plays. All that being said, Magnus is still the best player out there and he will be until someone figures out how to beat him. 
MY PREDICTION
14 games. First to 7.5 wins. Gosh, this is gonna be a great match! When I look at this matchup, the first thing I think is Magnus is the unquestioned favorite here, there is no doubt about that. If Nepo wins it would be an upset. Not a huge upset, but he's the underdog here. Most people are predicting Magnus to win the match, and it's hard to argue against that. But there are also some people out there who dare predict the upset here. To me, an upset happening depends on what version of Nepo shows up. If we get the inconsistent version of Nepo, Magnus will win, without tiebreaks. If we get the version of Nepo who played brilliantly in the Candidates tournament, I think Nepo wins. Without tiebreaks. I suspect we will see a little of both in this match. I think this will be the most challenging championship match for Magnus because of, you guessed it, Nepo's aggressive playing style. I think we will see some decisive results. In other words, it won't be all draws like it was in 2018. Nepo will have a game or two where he plays somewhat inaccurately and Magnus wins, but I also think we will see Nepo play some beautiful games, too. I think both players get 2 wins each, with all other games ending in a draw, resulting in a 7-7 score. The match will then go to tiebreaks, the first of which being 4 25|10 rapid games, which will end in a 2-2 score. The match will then go to the next tiebreak, 2 5|3 blitz games, and after they split 1-1, they will play 2 more, resulting in another 1-1 split. Not until the 3rd blitz match will we see a winner, and the winner will be...
GM Ian Nepomniachtchi
That's right. I predict Ian Nepomniachtchi will pull off the stunning upset, defeat Magnus Carlsen, and become the next world chess champion. Now, I admit, I am not as confident in this prediction as I'd like to be. Predicting Magnus will lose isn't usually a good idea. But, regardless of the outcome, I stand by this prediction, and I believe Nepo will come to play and he will earn the title of world champion.
FINAL WORDS & ANNOUNCEMENTS
First off, I want to thank y'all so much for reading, I sincerely hope y'all enjoyed my preview! Please leave a comment below, share whatever randomness you want, I always enjoy reading the comments y'all leave here. Before I end, I do have a couple of announcements regarding my blog. Firstly, my next post will be on Thanksgiving day, November 25th. I won't share exactly what the blog will be about, but it's a safe bet it has something to do with Thanksgiving. Secondly, after that Thanksgiving blog, I have at least 5 more blogs I plan to post by the end of 2021. You can see what I have planned below, but I won't give away too much. So that's at least 5 more planned by the end of 2021, and I have even more ideas for 2022. I won't be short of content, so stay tuned! And finally, I am thrilled to announce the creation of the Lightning Reports YouTube Channel! Any content found in my blogs will also be available on this channel, and I have big plans for the YouTube channel if all goes well. Hopefully, you'll check that out some time and we'll see where it goes.
So yeah, that's all I've got, for now. I'm really excited for the rest of the year! Hopefully, all goes well. It'll be a good amount of work for me to get all these blogs out on time, and then make videos for YouTube, but I like a good challenge and am 100% down for this! Once again, thanks so much for reading, I truly appreciate it, and I truly hope you enjoyed it. Again, leave any comments you want, I love reading them. Be sure to tell me who you think will win the world chess championship, I'd be interested to see how many people agree with me. Probably not many, but who knows. And on that note, I'll end this. Cyall in the comments! #NepoFTW
