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RAR Match Update: "Unbiased" Statistics

RAR Match Update: "Unbiased" Statistics

Joseph_Truelson
Jan 29, 2017, 12:12 PM 27

Photo is from the first result for images in Google. By now I'm sure that you have all heard about the "RAR" Match, a world famous match between the 2nd best chess player on Mercer Island and the 5th board of Redmond High School. Since numbers never lie, the only way to get a fair look at who will win the match is to take a look at the numbers. So here they are, presented in the least biased way ever by my amazing boss, who I am happy to be a slave for- editor.

 

A number of chess players, and an even larger number of non-chess players think that I am a liar. That's right! There are sure a lot of crazy people out there! In order to prove to them, and myself, that I never lie, I will post a blog that consists almost entirely of facts. 

Me and RookSacrifice still haven't come out with the details for when the RAR match will happen, if there will be multiple time controls, as we still haven't decided on whom we will select to be our sponsor. Also, we haven't prearranged all of the games in our match either, so it is very possible that this match will not happen until March or April... of next year.

However, today we will take a look at the current statistics, the only ones that actually have any significance in determining who has the chances. These are the chess.com blitz and bullet ratings, our US Chess Ratings, our personal records (on and off the board), and last and least, our FIDE ratings. Without further adieu, let's get started!

Chess.com bullet ratings

This is by far the most important rating to use, as the difference between me and RookSacrifice's ratings are the most in this sector.

Looking at these charts we can assume that Joseph_Truelson will crush Samuel Deng in bullet games. It is true that RookSacrifice is quite a bit below his highest rating ever, a sign of RookSacrifice's potential. Also, his best bullet victories have been against Joseph_Truelson. However, it is clear that bullet favors Joseph, who's RAR attacks steal all of RookSacrifice's time (and rating!)

Chess.com blitz ratings

In blitz, RookSacrifice does appear to have more hope, but only slightly. Like bullet, his best victories have been against Joseph_Truelson, and as his highest rating is 1889, it is clear that on a good day he can put up a good fight against Joseph_Truelson, who's play can sometimes be as low as 1890. However, Joseph_Truelson is better, which is a fact.

Joseph Truelson vs. RookSacrifice

Joseph_Truelson's overall record against RookSacrifice is an impressive 146 wins to 74 losses, with 13 draws. However, RookSacrifice may have some hope, as in their most recent game he won. 

In their only tournament game, Joseph_Truelson was nice enough to give RookSacrifice a better position, but RookSacrifice felt guilty and therefore made the position a dead draw, so they drew.

US Chess Rating

Now we move on to the over the board ratings. Joseph Truelson and Samuel Deng have both played a good number of US Chess games, and therefore the ratings in this system should be somewhat reliable.

Nevertheless, Joseph still has a somewhat significant lead in rating here as well.


Joseph Truelson is at a record high in rating, which means that he is probably overrated. However, this match is not US Chess rated, much to Joseph's relief, as he specializes in fast time controls.

FIDE Rating

As this is the most official rating in the world, used by the elite players and is universally recognized, it is by far the least important. (I hate the elite players!) Therefore only take the ratings in this field with a grain of salt, in fact even less, take it with an atom of salt! (NaCl)

Samuel Deng has a FIDE Rating of 1847, very impressive, as it is even higher than his US Chess Rating! For some reason he plays well in International events. Fortuanately, this match will be a local event, so Joseph should have better chances.

Speaking of which, Joseph does not do well in FIDE, mainly because the rulers of FIDE hate him, because he hates FIDE. This has led him to have a rating of only 1743, which is high enough due to the fact that FIDE is always trying to change the rating system to go against him.

Conclusion

So there ends some "unbiased" statistics. The RAR match probably can't take place for a while, but as they say, the actual event isn't important, but rather, the journey, the preparation, and the adventure is the most important part. Under that philosophy, the RAR match may very well never start.

The ratings seem to favor Joseph Truelson. This means that the only hope for Samuel is if he pulls off a big upset. Does Samuel have the ability to stop the overrated Joseph Truelson? Or, like every other lower rated player, will he get demolished and shamed with everyone in the world watching?

Coming up next before the RAR Match starts is possibly an interview with Joseph_Truelson, Samuel Deng, Joseph Truelson, and analysis of games that we have played.

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